Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 1.699048 2.249054 2.996558 4.114255 5.792855 8.306404e+00 1.253341e+01
2025-01-05 1.158946 1.746754 2.694436 4.430174 7.772716 1.454152e+01 3.135204e+01
2025-01-12 0.776310 1.286585 2.222770 4.243313 9.082355 2.222388e+01 7.287400e+01
2025-01-19 0.530812 0.946966 1.793363 3.890908 10.009448 3.229391e+01 1.767861e+02
2025-01-26 0.404087 0.774301 1.608592 3.997992 12.698225 5.854922e+01 7.362982e+02
2025-02-02 0.332327 0.684053 1.564847 4.516134 18.470216 1.402716e+02 9.822417e+03
2025-02-09 0.283241 0.624355 1.571919 5.310253 29.145607 4.508875e+02 3.497737e+07
2025-02-16 0.233768 0.543386 1.477286 5.701574 41.194492 1.492448e+03 NaN
2025-02-23 0.187535 0.452673 1.301582 5.559441 50.450529 4.577309e+03 NaN
2025-03-02 0.150118 0.372827 1.119252 5.182166 57.122960 1.452771e+04 NaN
2025-03-09 0.129952 0.335814 1.071904 5.588899 84.064874 2.992374e+05 NaN
2025-03-16 0.113001 0.302395 1.020004 5.944244 123.351112 8.611744e+10 NaN
2025-03-23 0.099374 0.276419 0.992509 6.595984 209.593642 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 0.087493 0.251932 0.957740 7.215153 364.835238 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 0.074083 0.217433 0.853526 6.915723 472.887720 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.062268 0.185018 0.741597 6.306384 535.064844 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.055120 0.167599 0.698856 6.526850 877.063945 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.050793 0.159388 0.702192 7.509116 2218.704707 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.047604 0.154539 0.723269 9.041118 8675.317206 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.043421 0.144199 0.703279 9.824014 29188.357187 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.038597 0.129665 0.645912 9.566591 60616.513652 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.034027 0.115000 0.579230 8.849442 89548.920771 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.031540 0.108733 0.568308 9.654635 873952.694989 NaN NaN